This is a cautious sell recommendation. I’m concerned about the recent rise in long-term rates, particularly in the 10-year Treasury note, which directly affects 30-year mortgage rates. Over the past 90 days, the 30-year mortgage rate has fluctuated from around 6.73% down to 6.08%, only to rise again to 6.79%. These swings are largely driven by the bond market’s anticipation of potential policy shifts under the new administration, which could lead to inflationary pressures.
Despite these challenges, Opendoor has delivered strong results. The stock remains on my watch list, and I may consider moving it back to a buy if we get clearer signals from the bond market. While I still believe that long-term rates will eventually decrease, the bond market’s unpredictable “Jekyll and Hyde” trading pattern currently undermines Opendoor’s business model. Until the bond market stabilizes, short sellers will likely maintain an advantage.
I believe in this stock’s potential over the long term, but for now, it’s not the right time—though that could change. quickly.