The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have been limping higher over the past 2 weeks. The last decent up-volume day was about 2 weeks ago. I have been stating that this is a major concern. Usually, you like to see above-average daily volume on an upswing to reinforce conviction. I am not buying into this trap. But I have yet to figure out a catalyst to set off selling again. Is the market just waiting for the day the Fed officially lowers rates? I don’t know! But the risk, in my opinion, to be a buyer right is too high without the market confirming the bottom it set around 8/4/2024.
NVDA earnings tomorrow after the close
Everyone, including myself, expects NVDA to blow away earnings and revenue expectations tomorrow. With upside momentum stalled and market conditions looking frail, everyone is wondering if this will be the catalyst to reinvigorate momentum to the upside of this market and propel it to a new high.
My guess, I think it will be a sell on the news. NVDA, I guess, will gap higher on the open and close and be lower than its open price of the day. A classic selling into strength my institutions. They are just taking money off the table. Thursday should be a very interesting day.
Upstart
I must admit I am a bit surprised Upstart closed at $44.11. It is up approximately 70% in less than 60 days. Upstart most likely is going to correct hard when the market corrects. It has almost doubled from the low on August 5th at $22.32.
Small Cap Russell 2000
The Russell 2000 lost ⅝ of a point today. I also expect it to correct when the larger averages test their bottom. This, I believe, is where institutional money is going to flow. Add some quality small caps to your buy list. I will publish my buy list later.