Tonight, after the closing bell, the most important company on planet Earth reports earnings. NVIDIA (NVDA) will drop its fiscal Q4 2026 results at approximately 4:00 PM ET, followed by a conference call with CEO Jensen Huang at 5:00 PM. The numbers will almost certainly be spectacular. And I’m telling you right now — that may not be enough to save the stock in the short run.
Here’s what I see, and why.
The Numbers Wall Street Is Expecting
Let’s establish the bar. According to Bloomberg consensus, analysts expect NVIDIA to report:
● Revenue: $65.8 billion (Zacks consensus sits at $65.56B; NVIDIA’s own guidance was $65B ±2%)
● EPS: $1.52 – $1.53 (non-GAAP), representing 70.8% year-over-year growth
● Data Center Revenue: $60.2 billion, with a range of $56.9B to $62.6B across analyst models
● Gaming Revenue: ~$4 billion, up ~58% year-over-year
● Gross Margins: mid-70s — management’s stated goal heading into this print
For context, last quarter NVIDIA printed $57.01 billion in revenue, which was $3 billion above what Wall Street expected, and guided for an $8 billion quarter-over-quarter increase. The prior year Q4 was $39.3 billion, meaning tonight’s expected number represents 67.5% growth year-over-year. That’s not a company — that’s a force of nature.
Critically, analysts have upwardly revised EPS estimates three separate times in the past 30 days alone, according to Kiplinger. John Belton of Gabelli Funds put it bluntly: “Earnings expectations for Nvidia are exploding.” Prediction markets are pricing a 95% probability that NVIDIA beats on earnings tomorrow.
So yes, NVIDIA will almost certainly beat. I have no doubt about that.
The real question is whether a beat is already priced in — and whether the institutions that rode this stock up are about to hand their shares to retail investors buying the headline.
Why I Expect a “Sell the News” Event
1. The Expectation Treadmill Is Running at Full Speed
The market doesn’t reward companies for meeting the bar. It rewards them for raising it. And right now, the bar has been raised so many times that clearing it simply confirms what everyone already knew.
As one analyst noted at Zacks, the question has already shifted past Q4. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri was explicit: investor expectations for NVIDIA’s April quarter already demand revenue in the $74 to $75 billion range. That means NVIDIA could print a flawless $66 billion quarter tonight and immediately be asked, “But can you do $75 billion next time?” A clean guide at $70-72 billion — which would be massive by any historical standard — could actually disappoint the crowd.
That is the treadmill. And NVIDIA is on it.
2. The Institutions Are Already Reducing
Here is where it gets interesting, and where I want you to pay close attention.
According to 13F filings compiled by Quiver Quantitative, in Q4 2025, 2,598 institutional investors decreased their NVIDIA positions versus 2,553 that added. The sellers outnumber the buyers. And we’re not talking about small positions:
● UBS Asset Management removed 589,595,243 shares — a 75.1% reduction — worth an estimated $109.9 billion
● JPMorgan Chase removed 32,478,144 shares (-6.6%), worth approximately $6.1 billion
● Barclays PLC removed 17,387,588 shares (-19.9%), worth approximately $3.2 billion
● SoftBank Group removed 32,110,456 shares (-100%) — a complete exit worth nearly $6 billion
These aren’t retail traders taking profits. These are the largest financial institutions in the world quietly reducing exposure before tonight’s print. They are not selling because they think NVIDIA is a bad company. They are selling because they understand the dynamics of liquidity events — you sell into strength when the whole world is watching and the bid is deep.
3. The Options Market Is Screaming “Danger”
The options market is pricing approximately a 6% to 6.3% move in either direction after tonight’s report, per ORATS data cited by EBC Financial Group. That implies a rough post-earnings range of roughly $181 to $205 on a close of $192.85.
But here’s the wrinkle: implied volatility is currently running around 75%, and Seeking Alpha’s analysis indicates it is expected to collapse from roughly 60% post-earnings to 30% once the binary event passes. That’s a “volatility crush” — and it means that almost anyone who bought calls anticipating a rally could still lose money even if the stock pops, because the premium they paid evaporates.
Furthermore, the $200 strike has become a massive gamma resistance level. For most call positions to profit, the stock needs to clear and hold above $200. With dealer hedging flows working against the bulls below that level, a failure to punch through $200 could actually accelerate selling.
One quantitative analysis (Tandel Quant Analytics) pegged the options-implied earnings move at ±$15.60 to $16.50 — and classified the current regime as HIGH_VOL_MEAN_REVERT, meaning elevated volatility with a statistical tendency toward reversion.
4. The Stock Has Already Stalled — For Three Months
NVIDIA hit its all-time high of $212.19 on October 29, 2025. It has not traded above that level since. As of Tuesday’s close at $192.85, the stock is down approximately 9% from that peak and has spent three consecutive months in a consolidation range.
The stock failed to break the $192.69 resistance level in late January and again in mid-February without closing above it. A failure to close above $200 post-earnings would confirm this technical ceiling. And keep this in mind: AMD, a direct peer in the same semiconductor sector, recently beat earnings expectations and promptly dropped 17.3%. Qorvo beat and dropped 6.8%. The sector is currently punishing beats.
5. China Is a Wildcard, Not a Catalyst
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has spent months lobbying Washington to re-open the Chinese market. He once described it as a $50 billion annual opportunity growing 50% per year. But as of today, the Trump administration is still conducting a national security review of potential H200 sales to China — and NVIDIA is assuming zero Chinese data center revenue in its Q4 guidance. Beijing has also reportedly instructed customs agents to block H200 imports pending the review.
This means China offers no upside surprise tonight, but remains a hanging sword that could cut at any moment.
The Guidance Number Is Everything
Let me be clear about what the market will actually trade on tonight. The Q4 beat will be acknowledged and forgotten in about 30 seconds. What everyone in that call room will be furiously writing down is the Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance.
The street needs to see a number above $70 billion to stay comfortable. UBS has already told us investors are mentally modeling $74-75 billion. If Jensen Huang guides to $70-72 billion — which would represent 20%+ growth from tonight’s expected print — there will be investors who call that a miss. And they will sell.
If guidance comes in near or below $70 billion, expect a swift and significant sell-off.
My Bottom Line: TL:DR
NVIDIA will beat on both the top and bottom line tonight. That part is nearly certain. The beat has been engineered by three rounds of analyst estimate revisions and a guidance range set by management to be cleared. What is not certain is whether Jensen Huang can thread the needle on forward guidance — setting a number high enough to not disappoint, while low enough to actually achieve.
The institutional selling is real. The options market structure is unfavorable. The stock has been rangebound for three months and is pressing against technical resistance. Peer earnings have been punished despite beats.
My expectation: NVDA beats on Q4, stock briefly spikes in after-hours, then sells off as institutions unload into the strength. The earnings call guidance will determine the magnitude of the decline. A clean, aggressive guide above $72B buys time. Anything that sounds like deceleration opens the door to a test of $175-180 support.
This is not a fundamental call against NVIDIA. The company is a generational business and the backbone of the AI revolution. This is a short-term trading call about mechanics, positioning, and the dangerous gap between expectation and reality.
Watch the guidance. Watch the $200 level. Watch the volume.
Johnny A is a 40-year market veteran, former stockbroker, and founder of Our Trade Desk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.Disclaimer & Disclosure Statement
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