Beating A Dead Horse? I Don’t Think So!
Upstart Holdings (UPST) – Technical Overview
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ANALYST DISCLOSURE
The author of this report maintains a LONG position in Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:
UPST) and has issued a BUY rating on the stock. The author may buy or sell shares of
UPST at any time without notice. This creates a potential conflict of interest that readers must
consider when evaluating the objectivity of this analysis.
This is our second time around on UPST. The first time in 2024 we rode it from appx. $ 26
to over 80$. I feel it is setting up for another good move. Here is why.
Upstart Holdings (UPST) – Technical Overview
(the stars may be aligning)
● Price Action & Candlesticks: UPST has been extremely volatile, reflecting its
high-growth fintech profile. The stock is down ~23% year-over-year, after a
rollercoaster 2025 that saw a 52-week high of $96.43 and a plunge to $31.40 at the
lows. Notably, from those late-2025 lows, UPST has staged a strong rebound: it’s up
~53% off the bottom, recently trading in the high-$40s. The price action suggests a
possible trend reversal underway – the stock made a double-bottom/base in the
low-$30s in Q4 and has since been making higher lows. Candlestick-wise, December
featured some bullish engulfing and long-tailed candles off support (sign of buyers
stepping in near $35-$40). By early January 2026, momentum improved: YTD the stock
is +10% already. However, rallies have met resistance around the $50-$52 zone (recent
highs around $50 and psychological level). Overall, the medium-term trend is shifting
upward, but UPST hasn’t fully broken out yet – it’s in a make-or-break area just below
key resistance. We see tighter daily ranges in the last few sessions (indecision candles
near $48-$49), indicating the market is waiting on a catalyst (maybe earnings). If bulls
can push it above the mid-$50s, that would confirm a trend change; failure could lead to
back-and-fill trading in the $40s.
●Support & Resistance Zones: Support: The stock’s strong base at ~$31-32 (52-week
low region) is major long-term support. More immediately, the $40-$41 level, which was
the breakout point from the base in December, should now act as support on pullbacks
(also roughly the 50-day MA – see below). Indeed, a recent dip to ~$46 was bought and
the stock held above $45, suggesting support is rising. Another layer of support is the
prior highs around $50 (now initial support if the stock breaks out). Resistance: UPST
faces a significant ceiling around $54-$55, which is aligned with its 200-day moving
average (~$54.9). This $55 zone also coincides with a minor price shelf from mid-2025.
Above that, $60 is a notable resistance – it’s near the average analyst target ($60.36)
and where the stock topped in August 2025 after a short-squeeze rally. Beyond $60,
resistance levels step up roughly in $10 increments (psychological levels and past
peaks) – e.g. $70-$75 (where the stock was in mid-2025 during exuberant moments)
and of course the distant high near $96. In summary, UPST is challenging a key
inflection zone now (~$50-55); a decisive break would open considerably more upside,
whereas failure could send it back to test support in the $40s.
● Moving Averages (50 & 200): The technical trend is improving but not fully bullish
yet. UPST has already cleared its 50-day SMA (~$44.5) and is trading ~8% above it – a
positive short-term sign (the 50-day is now sloping upwards). However, the stock
remains below the 200-day SMA (~$54.9) by about 11-12%. In other words, the 50-day
is still below the 200-day (though that gap is closing). This suggests that while the
short-term trend has turned up, the long-term trend (200-day) is still downward-sloping.
Notably, if UPST can rally into the mid-$50s, we could see a bullish “golden cross” in
the coming weeks (50-day crossing above 200-day) – often a medium-term buy signal.
For now, traders will be watching $54-$55 (200-day) as a pivotal resistance. The last
time UPST traded above its 200-day was back in mid-2021’s boom; regaining it now
would mark a significant regime change. As of mid-January, fifty-day MA = $44.47,
two-hundred-day MA = $54.88, so the stock is sandwiched between the two – a classic
make-or-break setup.
● Technical Indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger, ATR, Ichimoku): Momentum gauges are
pointing up for UPST. RSI (14) is ~52-53, up from oversold levels (<30) in Q4 – this
neutral reading belies the strong improvement from where it was. Importantly, on the
recent price highs (~$50), RSI did not reach overbought, leaving room for further upside
before any technical “cool off.
” The MACD on the daily chart is firmly bullish: it crossed
above the signal line in December and continues to rise in positive territory, reflecting
growing positive momentum. The MACD histogram has been positive for several weeks,
confirming the uptrend momentum (though we note it ticked slightly lower during the brief
pullback, it’s now stabilizing). Bollinger Bands: The bands expanded during the early
January rally (volatility increase as price pushed up), and currently UPST is near the
upper band – indicative of a strong upward bias. In recent days the bands have started
to narrow slightly as price consolidated ~ $48, implying the stock is coiling for a move
(bands often pinch before a breakout). Volatility: UPST is inherently a volatile issue –
ATR (14) ~ $2.45 (≈5% of price), meaning daily moves of $2+ are common. Historical
volatility has been in the 5-6% daily range recently, higher than HTZ. Its 5Y beta is
~2.28 – higher volatility than the market and slightly higher than HTZ’s beta. Ichimoku
Cloud: On the daily chart, UPST has broken above the cloud in its recent surge, and the
cloud is flipping to bullish ahead. On the weekly chart it’s still below the cloud, but the
cloud is thinning. This suggests the medium-term downtrend is close to ending. Overall,
indicators show building positive momentum and room to run if key levels are cleared.
● Volume Analysis: Trading volume has been telling in UPST’s rebound. During the
late-2025 bottoming, volume spiked on big up-days, signaling accumulation. For
instance, on November 6-7 around earnings, and again on days of positive news (like
partnership announcements or analyst upgrades), volumes exceeded 8–10M (well
above norms). The average volume (20-day) is about 4.55M shares, which is solid but
actually below the longer-term average (~5.6M – reflecting some holiday lull). We saw
extremely low volume during a recent pullback: on Jan 12, UPST dropped 6.4% on only
~1.02M shares (about 75% below average volume), suggesting that decline was more
due to a lack of buyers/liquidity than heavy selling pressure. This low-volume dip was
quickly absorbed by buyers. Such action implies underlying demand – dips are being
used to accumulate shares, and big money wasn’t distributing at those levels. On the
rally days, volume has picked up. Notably, as UPST approached $50, volume did not yet
explode, indicating many are waiting for the earnings catalyst. In summary: Volume
patterns have been bullish (higher on advances, lower on pullbacks). A true breakout
above resistance could be accompanied by a volume surge as sidelined buyers and
covering shorts jump in. Conversely, if earnings disappoint, a spike in sell volume could
quickly test the support levels mentioned. So far, however,
“volume precedes price”
appears to favor the bulls – accumulation volume has been rising into this up-move.
● Smart Money Signals (Institutional & Insider Activity, Dark Pools): Institutional
flows have been strongly positive in recent quarters. Funds significantly increased
positions in UPST – institutional ownership rose to ~74% of the float, and holdings were
+11.97% higher last quarter, indicating many funds bought in during the latter half of
2025. For example, big names like Geode Capital added shares (as noted mid-2025)
and more recently others likely accumulated during the Q4 dip. Insider activity has also
been bullish: in the past 3 months corporate insiders bought ~$3.1 million worth of
shares. Notably, the CTO (Paul Gu) purchased 100,000 shares around $39.23 in
December – a confident insider buy signaling they see value at those levels. Insider
buying of that magnitude (>$3.9M) is a strong “smart money” vote of confidence. There
have been no large insider sales in the same period. This insider and institutional
alignment suggests “smart money” is positioning for a turnaround. In dark pools,
short volume has been high but not extreme. Off-exchange short sales have typically
comprised ~40–50% of volume on UPST – e.g. 47% on Jan 15 and fluctuating around
that range. Some days saw spikes above 50% (e.g.
~52.6% on Jan 13), indicating active
shorting off-exchange, but these ratios are more “normal” for a heavily traded tech stock.
Moreover, UPST’s off-ex short ratio has actually decreased slightly in the past week
(down from ~53% to 47% as the stock stabilized), possibly hinting that short sellers are
easing up ahead of earnings. Borrow rates for shorting UPST aren’t published here, but
given the high short interest, they may tick up if demand to short remains (still, no signs
of extreme hard-to-borrow fees yet). Overall, institutional and insider sentiment is
notably bullish, whereas short-term dark pool shorting shows hedging but not an
outright smart money exodus. This mix often precedes volatile moves – with big
investors betting on the long side and traders actively shorting in the interim.
● Short Interest & Squeeze Potential: Short interest in UPST is very high – a key
factor for potential explosive moves. There are ~26.7 million shares short, which is
~27% of the total outstanding and over 31% of the public float. Days-to-cover is
about 6 days at recent volume pace (and was ~4.7 days at more normalized volume).
Importantly, short interest grew as the stock fell in 2025 (shorts piled in on the way
down), and remains near peak levels. This sets the stage for a potential short squeeze.
If a positive catalyst emerges – e.g. a blowout earnings or optimistic guidance on Feb 10
– shorts could rush to cover, adding tremendous buying pressure. We saw an
example in mid-2025: back in August, shorts were ~21.9% of float and analysts
already flagged a “future short squeeze” scenario. Now at ~31% float short, the
squeeze risk is even higher. Options positioning amplifies this (see below: lots of call
buying), meaning any rapid price spike could be exacerbated by shorts and call-option
delta-hedging. It’s worth noting that UPST’s fundamentals have improved (profitable
now), which increases the squeeze chance since the short thesis weakens as earnings
recover. In summary, UPST has significant short squeeze fuel making its upside
potential more explosive in the medium term if a catalyst triggers a squeeze. Traders
should keep an eye on short-interest changes post-earnings; any decline might indicate
shorts covering in anticipation.
● Options Activity (Past Month): Options flow for UPST has been aggressively
bullish. The put/call open interest ratio is only ~0.55, meaning call OI nearly doubles
put OI – a stark contrast to HTZ. As of mid-Jan, total call OI stands at ~221,000
contracts vs about 121,000 puts (calls make up ~65% of all OI). This indicates that
many market participants are positioned for upside – either via speculative call buying
or via call selling by shorts (which would require them to buy stock if exercised, adding to
squeeze pressure). Put/call volume in recent weeks also skewed bullish: on rallies,
large call volumes and call sweeps have been observed (implying traders betting on a
squeeze or upward moves). There have been reports of unusual options activity – for
instance, on Dec 13, over 200k contracts traded in a single session (many of them calls),
which is a huge spike in options volume. Strike concentration: A lot of call open
interest is centered just out-of-the-money – e.g. $50 and $55 strike calls for Feb and
March expiries have significant open interest, as do some higher strikes ($60, $70) in
later months. This reflects bullish sentiment that the stock could make a sizable move
higher (those strikes would pay off if a squeeze/test of last year’s highs occurs). On the
put side, there is decent OI at $40 and $30 strikes (likely hedges and protective puts),
but overall put OI is far lighter. Notably, the largest OI increases recently have been
in calls – traders anticipating upside into earnings or a takeoff after. Implied volatility on
UPST options is quite elevated (given the stock’s history, traders expect big moves – the
options market is pricing that in). In fact, UPST options implied vol ranks among the
top of fintech stocks, reflecting that the market is bracing for a big swing by Feb 10earnings. Another bullish tell: we’ve seen a rise in call open interest of ~5% in the
last 5 days while put OI fell slightly, showing accelerating bullish options flow.
Overall, the options market setup favors the bulls, with potential gamma squeeze
dynamics (if the stock starts rising, market makers will need to buy shares to hedge the
calls they sold). The relatively low put/call ratio and high call OI are often a precursor to
outsized upward moves – though one must also note it can lead to volatility if those
bullish bets unwind. In sum, UPST’s options activity suggests traders expect a
significant upward move and possibly a short squeeze, especially with the earnings
catalyst on the horizon.
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